Байгалийн баялгийг хэрэглэх, хадгалах дүрэм

Abstract

This paper discusses the distinct features of fiscal frameworks for resource-rich countries, as well as the fiscal primary expenditure and debt forecasts until 2050 for Mongolia using those frameworks. In case the Mongolia’s fiscal primary expenditure follows the current trend, the net government debt to non-resource GDP ratio is expected to be around 40 percent by 2050, which is 9.1 times higher than the absolute amount of current debt. Furthermore, provided that special fiscal requirements in the Fiscal Stability Law are not amended or breached, the current debt is projected to be paid fully by 2050. Also, by implementing new fiscal frameworks assumed in this paper, the government will be able to pay off its debt before 2045 and have significant financial accumulation by 2050. In particular, under permanent income hypothesis (PIH) or bird-in-hand (BIH) rules, it is possible to generate the financial accumulation, amounting 35 to 74 percent of non-resource GDP by 2050