Монгол улсын эдийн засгийн төлөв байдлыг дэгдэм солигдох загвараар загварчлах нь

Abstract

This paper analyses selected macro economic variables using the Markov switching model. As a result, the stable regime tends to be more volatile but lasts relatively longer, whereas the unstable regime is observed to be less volatile but has a tendency to shift to the stable state more easily. The Markov switching AR model predicts that the economy was in relatively stable state from 2000 to 2008; however, as the result of the 2009 financial crisis, the economy shifted to the unstable regime, which lasted until 2012, when it began to shift to the stable state. The ARDL model predicts that although the income from export is statistically significant, it’s effect to GDP highly depends on which state the economy is currently in.