Гадаад худалдааны бодлогын квант эдийн засгийн хандлага: Монголын сүү, сүүн бүтээгдэхүүний зах зээл дэх интерференцийн нөлөө

Abstract

This paper develops a foreign trade interference model to analyze the dynamics of Mongolia’s dairy market within a quantum economics framework. The study represents import volume, domestic supply, tariffs, and domestic production support measures through phase coefficients, and calculates the Policy Interference Index (PII). The findings reveal that the phase difference between import and domestic supply exerts a strong influence on supply efficiency, suggesting that PII can serve as an important indicator of policy coherence. Applying the interference model to assess the efficiency of Mongolia’s dairy trade policy constitutes a novel theoretical contribution with potential for further empirical and policy-oriented development. In this study, import and domestic supply are expressed as complex-valued wave functions. The impacts of policy instruments—such as tariffs (α(τ)) and support measures (β(s))—on phase shifts are estimated to analyze the outcomes of supply interference. Statistical data from 2010 to 2023 of the National Statistics Office were employed to compute the annual PII.
The results indicate that during 2014–2016, constructive interference effects were observed, consistent with policies promoting domestic supply. In contrast, from 2017–2019, the rapid expansion of imports generated predominantly destructive interference effects. These findings demonstrate that aligning trade policy instruments in appropriate phase relations can significantly enhance supply efficiency. Therefore, the proposed interference model provides a more precise, data-driven analytical tool for formulating trade policies. It offers an innovative, research-based approach to policy design for small open economies.