Identifying Land Suitability for Nomadic Pastoralism using Geospatial Techniques and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

Нүүдлийн бэлчээрийн газрын тохиромжтой байдлыг орон зайн олон шалгуурт шийдвэр гаргалтын шинжилгээ (MCDA)-гээр үнэлэх нь

Abstract

This study evaluates the spatial suitability of land for nomadic pastoralism across two distinct seasonal periods: winter–spring and summer–autumn. Nomadic pastoralism is a cornerstone of Mongolia’s rural livelihood system, but its sustainability is increasingly challenged by pasture degradation, climatic variability, and socio-economic pressures. Since pasture quality and accessibility fluctuate significantly between seasons, identifying suitable grazing areas is critical for ensuring both ecological resilience and herder well-being. To capture these dynamics, seven environmental and socio-economic factors were selected for each season and analyzed using a geographic information system (GIS)–based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Factor selection followed the methodological guidelines for pasture suitability assessment issued by the Agency of Land Administration and Management, Geodesy and Cartography (ALAMGaC), while additional determinants reflecting herder mobility and traditional grazing practices were incorporated to refine the evaluation framework. The results reveal distinct seasonal contrasts. During the winter–spring season, 11.26% of the study area was identified as unsuitable for grazing, 18.02% as less suitable, 46.37% as moderately suitable, and 24.35% as highly suitable. In contrast, summer–autumn conditions produced a less favorable distribution, with 23.83% unsuitable, 30.66% less suitable, 30.22% moderately suitable, and only 15.29% highly suitable. These differences emphasize the influence of climatic and ecological seasonality on pasture productivity and herding strategies. The findings suggest that sustainable pasture management requires not only an understanding of spatial heterogeneity but also season-specific planning. Such an approach can provide valuable insights for policymakers, land managers, and local herding communities seeking to maintain the viability of nomadic pastoral systems under changing environmental and socio-economic conditions.