Comparative study of urbanization levels in local cities (In the case studies of the cities of Arvaikheer, Bayankhongor, and Tsetserleg)

Орон нутгийн хотуудын хотжилтын түвшний харьцуулсан судалгаа (Арвайхээр, Баянхонгор, Цэцэрлэг хотуудын жишээн дээр)

Abstract

Urbanization has rapidly accelerated worldwide, drawing significant attention in the fields of economics, sociology, and geography. In the case of Mongolia, the urbanization process has intensified since the country’s transition to a market economy in the 1990s, with population concentration increasingly centered around Ulaanbaatar and other major urban centers. However, urbanization is not merely a matter of population aggregation; it is a complex phenomenon that encompasses changes in land use and economic structure. The objective of this study is to examine the interrelationships and mutual influences among demographic, spatial (land-related), and economic aspects of urbanization, and to identify the key factors impacting the level of urban development. The research focuses on three selected case study cities—Tsetserleg (Arkhangai Province), Bayankhongor (Bayankhongor Province), and Arvaikheer (Uvurkhangai Province)—using statistical data, national and international research, and a range of quantitative econometric techniques. These include time series models, cointegration analysis, error correction models, Granger causality tests, and impulse response functions. A total of 19 indicators across the three dimensions (population, land, economy) were selected, and entropy weight method was employed to construct composite indices. A hybrid urban development classification model was then used to assess the interrelations among these urbanization dimensions. The findings reveal that changes in population growth, land use, and economic structure are interdependent and collectively define the level of urbanization. The analysis further highlights that differences in age structure, migration patterns, land density, and economic sector composition across the three cities play a critical role in shaping urban interlinkages. Therefore, the formulation of urban policy should be grounded in a comprehensive framework that integrates demographic, spatial, and economic indicators. Holistic planning and coordinated policy implementation are essential to ensure balanced and sustainable urban development.