A study of the Factors Affecting the Population’s Residence in Ulaanbaatar City

Улаанбаатар хотын хүн амын суурьшилд нөлөөлөгч хүчин зүйлсийн судалгаа

Abstract

Ulaanbaatar city is facing many problems such as agglomeration of population, environmental pollution, road congestion, insufficient engineering infrastructure, and inaccessible public services. Therefore, comprehensively developing optimal spatial planning and management to solve these problems is crucial. Based on a detailed study of factors influencing human residence, it is possible to make spatial planning and investment and implement the optimal urban development policy. The spatial correlation was calculated by assuming that factors including universities, secondary schools, kindergartens, workplaces, commercial service centers, and housing will affect the human residence of Ulaanbaatar. In order to compare the outcome of this correlation with the results of empirical research, 306 citizens were surveyed using a random sampling method. The results of the multivariate regression analysis show that the explanatory power of the factors predicted to affect human residence is 63.5% (R²= 0.63), and the most influential variable is the density of secondary schools and kindergartens (28.09). According to the questionnaire, the results of the reliability analysis of the 5 tests that rank the factors influencing the settlement from high to low (from 1 to 5) is 0.67 or moderate reliability, so the assumed 5 factors affect the human settlement. Considering the factors affecting human settlement by age group of the population, the factor that most affects human settlement are housing for the population over 55 years old, secondary schools and kindergartens for the population aged 35-54, workplaces for the population aged 25-34, and universities and workplaces for the population aged 20-24. According to the multivariate regression analysis based on the results of the sample questionnaire, the explanatory power of the 5 factors influencing human settlement is 65 percent (R²= 0.65). The hypothesized factors influence population density (R²= 0.63-0.65) and vary by population age structure. It is necessary to take the above factors into consideration when making urban development policy, spatial planning, and investment, and developing plans that meet the demand.