Geospatial Analysis-Based Fire Risk Zonation in Ulaanbaatar City

Abstract

The objective of this study is to identify the key factors influencing fire risk in Ulaanbaatar and to develop an integrated spatial fire risk zonation map using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). This study integrates multiple datasets, including population distribution, fire incident records, the locations and storage capacities of fuel stations and depots, electrical substations, and a soil moisture index. All datasets were standardized, aggregated into hexagonal tessellation units, and converted into raster format. The weights of each criterion were determined using the AHP method, and a composite fire risk index was calculated. The results indicate that 37 hexagonal cells are classified as high-risk, 186 as medium-risk, and 604 as low-risk zones across the city. Furthermore, the distribution of children within these zones shows that 34% of the total child population resides in high-risk areas, while 46.3% lives in medium-risk areas. This spatial clustering pattern indicates that fire risk is closely linked to the urban structure and planning characteristics of Ulaanbaatar. These findings provide a scientific basis for urban safety assessment, disaster risk management, and effective resource allocation.