Long-term climate changes in permafrost region of the Mongolian Altai: The case study area in Khovd province

Монгол Алтайн цэвдэгт бүс нутгийн урт хугацааны уур амьсгалын өөрчлөлт: Ховд аймгийн жишээн дээр

Abstract

It is an irrefutable fact that climate change is actively occurring rapidly in Mongolia, as confirmed by numerous studies in recent years. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in high-mountainous regions. We conducted this study to assess climate change in permafrost regions of the Mongolian Altai mountains, and evaluated its impact on permafrost degradation and projected future trends. We selected Khovd province as the case study area. It is located in the Mongolian Altai region. The long-term meteorological data from the Khovd and Baitag stations is definitive. These stations are located in Jargalant and Bulgan soums in Khovd province. Furthermore, climate change projection models used to estimate future trends up to the year 2100. Climate change projection models show that air temperature will increase by between 1.3°C and 7.1°C by 2100. The SSP5-8.5 scenario shows unequivocally that the highest warming is expected, with air temperatures in the study area rising by 5.2 to 7.1°C after the 2070s compared to the average of 1981-2010. The results of this study are clear: over the 82-year period from 1940 to 2021, the air temperature in the study area has increased by approximately 2.5°C to 3°C. Precipitation patterns show variability, with increases of up to 2.44 mm in some areas and decreases of up to 2.73 mm in others. The projections of permafrost degradation are in line with the anticipated impacts of climate change in the Mongolian Altai mountains. It is clear that it will completely disappear by 2099. It is vital to take appropriate, scientifically based responses to reduce and prevent the intensity of climate change and base extinction in this region.