Modern dynamics of Tsambagarav mountain glaciers and interrelationships of hydrological systems, Mongol Altay Mountain, Western Mongolia

Монгол Алтайн Цамбагарав уулын мөстлийн орчин үеийн динамик, ус зүйн системийн харилцан хамаарал

Abstract

One of the major changes in the cryosphere due to warming is the melting of ice sheets and glaciers. Ice contains freshwater resources, maintains the ecosystem's balance, and is a key indicator of climate change. In particular, changes in glaciation in the highlands of arid and semi-arid regions significantly impact ecosystems and livelihoods. Therefore, in this study, the modern glacier of Mount Tsambagarav, one of the major glaciation complexes of the Mongolian Altai Mountains, and the factors and consequences affecting its area change and melting were determined using remote sensing, trend analysis, and statistical methods. As of 2022, Tsambagarav Mountain has 59.7 km² of ice, more than 90 percent concentrated at an altitude of more than 3500 meters. Between 1969 and 2022, or in the last 53 years, the total area has increased by 42.4%. According to MK analysis, air temperature increased the most in the north (Z=2.54) and northeast (Z=2.31) regions. At the same time, precipitation decreased in the north (Z=-0.29) and northeast (Z=-0.98) and increased in other regions of Tsambagarav mountain. In general, starting in 2012, there has been a tendency to increase precipitation and gradually increase air temperature. While the area of Nurgani Lake in the northern part is constantly increasing, the area of Green Lake in the southern part decreased in 1969-1990, but it is showing a tendency to increase again. As the ice melts and the area of glaciers decreases, the area of lakes increases. However, it also increases the risk of catastrophic phenomena caused by climate change, such as the increase in the flow of source rivers and the increase in the volume of lake water, which will cause the collapse of small lakes of glacial origin.